9 months after Donald Trump took workplace, promising to cut back costs on “day one”, a transparent majority of People say their month-to-month prices have risen by between $100 and $749, in keeping with an unique new ballot carried out for the Guardian.The president has continued to insist that there’s “nearly no inflation”. “Costs are ‘WAY DOWN’ within the USA,” Trump wrote on social media in late August.But in keeping with a brand new Harris ballot, People are nonetheless reporting hovering inflation and are more and more pessimistic concerning the economic system.When requested to estimate how a lot their common month-to-month family prices have elevated from final 12 months, 74% of these surveyed stated they’d seen will increase of a minimum of $100, in keeping with the ballot.A bar chart exhibiting that three-fourth of respondents stated their month-to-month family prices are going up by greater than $100The will increase have been reported throughout the political spectrum, with each Democrats and Republicans, together with independents, reporting value hikes.Trump’s re-election victory got here as voters soured on Joe Biden’s financial insurance policies and the legacy of Covid-era inflation. “Beginning on day one, we are going to finish inflation and make America reasonably priced once more,” Trump stated in a rally in August 2024.The inflation charge has declined from an annual charge of three% in January, when Trump took workplace, to 2.9% yearly in August (the final figures revealed). It has fallen considerably from its peak of over 9% in 2022 however stays uncomfortably forward of the Federal Reserve’s goal of two%.The ballot’s findings echo these of the Yale Funds Lab, whose economists have calculated that households will see a median enhance of $2,300 in prices a 12 months on account of Trump’s tariffs – a median of $191 monthly. That analysis calculates total value degree will increase and the impact the will increase could have on common family revenue figures.A graph exhibiting the inflation charge from 2016 to 2025.Many consider the 2024 presidential election was a referendum on Biden’s economic system. Inflation soared within the years after the pandemic whereas wages struggled to maintain up, leaving many People feeling like their paychecks have been shedding energy. Whereas the Democratic presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, fought to current a brand new financial imaginative and prescient centered on prices, for a lot of voters it was too late.However with simply over a 12 months till the midterm elections, Trump’s economic system isn’t wanting a lot brighter. A slight majority (54%) of People stated they believed the economic system was in a recession, 5 share factors greater than Harris’s Guardian ballot final September. The vast majority of People (53%) additionally suppose the economic system is getting worse, in contrast with 48% who stated the identical final 12 months.Inflation was rated as the largest threat to the US economic system when these polled have been requested to choose one situation from an inventory of threats, together with immigration, US democracy and tariffs. Inflation was the highest threat for Republicans (31%) and independents (33%), and it was the second largest threat for Democrats (29%), behind tariffs.A bar chart exhibiting what respondents perceived as largest threat to the US economyBut the events diverge over the place they see the cracks. Immigration was the second largest threat for Republicans, with 20% saying it was the largest threat to the economic system, in contrast with simply 8% of Democrats and independents. In the meantime, tariffs have been a giant threat for a lot of Democrats (31%) and independents (24%).When requested concerning the driving drive behind value will increase, Republicans have been much more seemingly (45%) to say they have been commonplace yearly adjustments on account of inflation, in contrast with 22% of Democrats and 27% of independents. In the meantime, 55% of Democrats and 55% of independents stated they thought value will increase have been pushed by present financial insurance policies set out by the federal government. About the identical share of individuals throughout the political spectrum, barely over 20%, stated the adjustments have been brought on by companies overcharging prospects to spice up earnings.skip previous e-newsletter promotionSign as much as This Week in TrumplandA deep dive into the insurance policies, controversies and oddities surrounding the Trump administrationPrivacy Discover: Newsletters could include details about charities, on-line advertisements, and content material funded by outdoors events. Should you wouldn’t have an account, we are going to create a visitor account for you on theguardian.com to ship you this article. You possibly can full full registration at any time. For extra details about how we use your information see our Privateness Coverage. We use Google reCaptcha to guard our web site and the Google Privateness Coverage and Phrases of Service apply.after e-newsletter promotionWhile Republicans appear far much less more likely to blame tariffs, and thus the Trump administration, on the value will increase than Democrats, independents appeared simply as keen as Democrats to level to tariffs as a problem.It is a appreciable flip from final 12 months. Final September, when Biden was nonetheless president, independents have been extra aligned with Republicans on pessimism across the economic system. The pessimism in all probability lent itself to votes for Trump: although independents have been cut up between Trump and Biden in 2024, the group had favored Biden by 9% within the 2020 election, in keeping with the Pew Analysis Middle.However whereas dissatisfaction over the economic system was a boon for Republicans final election, it could not translate to a straightforward pathway to the midterms for Democrats.The ballot confirmed that the pessimism concerning the economic system amongst independents, although shared with Democrats, doesn’t essentially translate to assist for the celebration.
Amongst all these polled, optimism for the Democratic celebration (25%) has dropped since final September (37%), whereas pessimism (39%) has elevated.
Pessimism is barely increased for Republicans (41%) in contrast with final 12 months, whereas optimism for the Republican celebration has stayed the identical since final 12 months, simply over 30%.
Boosts to Republican optimism come from throughout the celebration: amongst Republicans, 60% stated they have been optimistic for his or her celebration, in contrast with 42% of Democrats who stated the identical about their very own celebration.
Pessimism amongst independents is increased for the Republican celebration this 12 months (43%) in contrast with final 12 months (33%), although it’s now about the identical as these additionally pessimistic concerning the Democratic celebration (41%).
However regardless of the decline in assist for Democrats, financial insurance policies coming from Democrats’ insurance policies, together with a federal ban on value gouging for meals and grocery costs, increasing the kid tax credit score, and rising tax charges on long-term capital good points for millionaires, are nonetheless common amongst voters, and are much more common than insurance policies that Trump ran on and has applied. The assist for Democratic insurance policies mirrors outcomes that have been seen final September.The ban on value gouging, which was proposed by Harris’s marketing campaign, was nonetheless the most well-liked coverage, with 45% of People saying it will strengthen the economic system. Trump’s prime coverage, with 43% assist, was eliminating taxes on social safety – one thing his administration has but to behave on.Regardless of being the core of Trump’s financial agenda, mass deportation of migrants (24%), tax cuts (22%) and tariffs on international items (22%) have been a number of the least common insurance policies.This survey was carried out on-line throughout the US by the Harris Ballot from 11 to 13 September 2025, amongst a nationally consultant pattern of two,093 US adults.
