What Is Benjamin Netanyahu Really After?

On Friday, Benjamin Netanyahu’s authorities permitted a plan for Israel to take management of Gaza Metropolis, the place about one million Palestinians—about half of the inhabitants in all of Gaza—are actually dwelling. Many have been pressured to shelter there; the Israeli navy has taken management of seventy-five per cent of the remainder of the territory. Netanyahu’s plan, which he says is critical to “eradicate Hamas,” is opposed by a lot of Israel’s navy management, and even by plenty of centrist and center-right politicians. However he appears intent on persevering with Israel’s struggle in Gaza, partially to take care of the assist of far-right members in his cupboard, who’ve talked brazenly about resettling it and pushing Palestinian residents to “to migrate.” A real invasion of Gaza Metropolis may not occur for days or even weeks, if it does in any respect—there was some hypothesis that the specter of invasion is a negotiation tactic to get Hamas to launch the remaining twenty or so dwelling hostages nonetheless being held in Gaza. However, if the invasion strikes ahead, it’s nearly sure to exacerbate the horrific humanitarian state of affairs. As of Saturday, in keeping with the Gaza Well being Ministry, 2 hundred and twelve Gazans have starved to demise because the begin of the struggle, and those that stay are dealing with a worsening humanitarian disaster. The overall Palestinian demise toll is now greater than sixty thousand.I not too long ago spoke by telephone with Amos Harel, a protection analyst at Haaretz, in regards to the navy and political dimensions of Netanyahu’s announcement. Throughout our dialog, which has been edited for size and readability, we additionally mentioned what Netanyahu is absolutely aiming for by ramping up the struggle, whether or not there are plans to repopulate Gaza with Israeli settlers, and the way Netanyahu has modified because the struggle started.What particularly is Netanyahu proposing militarily right here and what makes this such an aggressive step?There’s all the time the query of what Netanyahu truly means. He doesn’t imply what he says, and he doesn’t say what he means—so it’s typically arduous to assemble. What he’s saying out loud is that this can be a technique to lastly defeat and destroy Hamas, and he’s saying that since all hope is misplaced concerning the negotiations for a hostage deal, the appropriate factor to do could be to renew navy stress on Hamas. So what he’s suggesting is a reoccupation of Gaza Metropolis, one thing that Israel hasn’t completed because the early months of the struggle. After which this time he claims that, in the event that they push the inhabitants out of Gaza Metropolis after which lastly take care of the Hamas militants there, it’ll regularly result in a Hamas defeat, and in some way, in a miraculous means, the hostages may also be launched.So that you drive folks out, and Hamas stays, and you then defeat Hamas? Isn’t that concept just like what Netanyahu has talked about earlier than, and it has not labored? Is there one thing new right here?I’m not a giant Netanyahu fan, and you need to admit that earlier makes an attempt to take over cities didn’t obtain the purpose of annihilating Hamas as he claimed. However, should you take a look at what occurred in Khan Younis and in Rafah, Israel did push the inhabitants out nearly fully. It occurred fairly shortly. You keep in mind there was a heated debate between the Biden Administration and Netanyahu over Rafah, and but Israel did push the inhabitants out and kill many Hamas militants there. Would something completely different occur this time? I don’t suppose so.The principle distinction between then and now’s that Hamas is now not a navy group. It was once that there was a hierarchy. There have been tight command-and-control networks. There have been folks in cost who made the choices and so forth. That is now not the case. What you’ve now’s a terrorist group utilizing guerrilla strategies. Most of its leaders have been killed. Most of its fighters are both injured or useless. They now have replacements who’re youthful, typically youngsters who get fundamental coaching and are despatched to the entrance. How do you defeat such a company? There’s no Iwo Jima second.My suspicion is that he’s probably not after that. What he’s eager about, for his political survival, is prolonging the struggle. It’s the perfect excuse for not doing the rest domestically, together with not launching an impartial investigation of October seventh. His corruption trial would in all probability be delayed if there’s hectic combating occurring. [Opposition politicians have called for a commission to look into the security and intelligence failures on October 7th. Netanyahu has rejected the idea, saying it would be predetermined, and warned about the role of the “deep state.”] And the intense, messianic right-wing events could be pleased with a brand new try and occupy the Strip.So, primarily, they tried this elsewhere at different factors within the struggle, and it did get the inhabitants out, regardless of the humanitarian penalties.And so they additionally destroyed complete cities.However, even when Israel did kill numerous Hamas fighters and additional weaken their chain of command, at this level its construction doesn’t actually exist. And you’ve got simply this group that’s primarily recruiting new folks from the inhabitants, even and not using a chain of command.Yeah, certain. Hamas modified the foundations of the sport. And, should you don’t adapt to the completely different recreation, then the entire dialogue about destruction is sort of meaningless. Once more, you’re not combating a military of terror, so to talk. You’re combating a brand new group or a unique model of a company that isn’t frightened an excessive amount of about casualties, about destruction, in regards to the above-ground inhabitants and its struggling. And, even when there are leaders, they’ve had quite a few leaders because the starting of the struggle. The others have been assassinated by Israel.What you’re describing looks like an insurgency, one thing that requires some type of political resolution.To an extent, sure. Regardless of all my criticism of Netanyahu’s insurance policies, I can’t keep away from the truth that we’re combating fairly an enemy right here. It’s not a drive that you may simply motive with or that behaves in keeping with the identical logic that Israel applies.Which logic are you speaking about?That’s a very good query. The logic is that, if Israel applies sufficient navy stress, then absolutely they’ll collapse as a result of it will not be logical to maintain resisting. This isn’t the appropriate means. This isn’t the way in which Hamas operates. They’ve an excessive jihadi ideology, and I feel, for them, it’s extra about the long term and never a lot in regards to the right here and now. If the Gaza Strip is destroyed, it doesn’t imply their new chief would really feel some form of regret and resolve to cease.I hold studying that this newest push from Netanyahu is unpopular in Israel and likewise that Netanyahu is a political animal, which on the floor is a bit of little bit of a contradiction, however you have been saying earlier it’d hold him in energy. What did you imply?To start with, it’s deeply unpopular in keeping with the polls, however so is the federal government. All public-opinion polls because the starting of the struggle present deep distrust of Netanyahu, and present that he would lose if elections have been held. Most individuals assist a hostage deal and paying any value to get them again, together with the discharge of all Hamas prisoners in Israeli jails. And likewise, there’s fairly a secure majority for an impartial October seventh investigative committee, which is extraordinarily necessary as a result of in the long run it’ll in all probability present Netanyahu’s accountability. However you want a no-confidence vote for him to face an election. And what he does higher than anyone else is keep his coalition by any means essential. He has fairly a secure majority within the Knesset, despite being extraordinarily unpopular. To be able to keep that state of affairs, what he wants is to maintain his companions happy.After which, after all, you’ve the 2 excessive right-wing events led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, and what they need can also be clear by now. They don’t solely need to win the struggle; they need complete destruction of Gaza. They need what they name “voluntary emigration,” which is definitely pressured emigration after making life insufferable to any Palestinian in Gaza, they usually need to rebuild settlements. By now it’s reasonably clear that these politicians are able to have the hostages be killed by Hamas. It doesn’t matter to them.Do you suppose Netanyahu needs settlements again in Gaza?I feel Netanyahu needs to outlive politically. I feel that, if it have been potential for there to be a pressured emigration of Palestinians whereas, on the identical time, he and Israel survive, he would love that. However I feel he’s way more astute than that, and he understands that that is extraordinarily troublesome to attain and that the worldwide backlash could be big. So he doesn’t seek for one purpose. There are all the time a few balls within the air, and he decides on the final minute which path of motion is best for him in an effort to survive. But it surely’s survival above all the pieces else.He comes from a well-known right-wing household. He’s spent his complete profession on the appropriate and is a good friend of settlements. He has warmly welcomed Donald Trump’s proposal, which, nevertheless significantly you’re taking it, would primarily drive Gazans out of Gaza to create a brand new “riviera” and result in what I think about could be some Israeli presence there. Why shouldn’t we imagine that Netanyahu might need this end result, too, even when he received’t do it in a single day?