Brexit didn’t solve Britain’s woes, but no matter: leaving the ECHR definitely will. Sounds simple, doesn’t it? | Polly Toynbee

There can be fireworks and celebration at Nigel Farage’s celebration convention this weekend. Burgeoning membership and council seats as Reform UK tops 30% within the polls. Immigration is the boat that sailed him right here: the extra small boats arriving, the broader his wolfish grin. Prime inflamer of foreigner hatred that he’s, black and brown individuals report what they name the Farage impact in a wave of assaults: Mothin Ali, new deputy head of the Greens and a Leeds councillor, was attacked with bottles whereas along with his household final week on Cromer seaside in Norfolk, and racist abuse was hurled at them. He stated that Reform rhetoric was inflicting individuals responsible immigrants and non-white individuals for Britain’s issues.As immigration powered the Brexit marketing campaign, absolutely probably the most surprising Brexit failure for his supporters have to be the rise in immigration that adopted. No marvel Farage by no means mentions Brexit now that its disastrous results have struck house with most voters: Bregret grips 61%, who say leaving was extra of a failure than success, solely 31% nonetheless say leaving was proper, whereas 56% suppose it was incorrect to vote to go away the EU. Who do they blame? The Conservatives and Boris Johnson high the checklist, with greater than two-thirds (67%) blaming Nigel Farage, the Ukip outsider who captured the Tory celebration.After the good Brexit failure, Farage and the Tories flip as a substitute to leaving the European conference on human rights (EHCR), blamed for small boat arrivals of undocumented migrants. Escape from the conference is the brand new “take again management”. “Idiot me as soon as, disgrace on you; idiot me twice, disgrace on me” needs to be the warning to all who had been taken in by the snake oil final time from Farage and Johnson, each life-long charlatans and deceivers. As was the case with Brexit, leaving the ECHR sounds easy: simply stop and deport the migrants to wherever.Depart apart ethical and human rights questions, that are unlikely to affect Reform backers. As an alternative, confront them with the brutal information about what leaving the ECHR means. This could be Brexit with knobs on, bringing but worse harm to Britain and its financial system. Leaving the EHCR would jeopardise the Brexit commerce and cooperation settlement with the EU, as EHCR membership is a requirement of that partnership. This might challenge us into the “no deal” Johnson initially threatened. It’s prone to imply sky-high tariffs and steep border obstacles.As it’s, the minimalist present commerce settlement led to this Workplace for Funds Duty evaluation: “Our forecasts have assumed that the quantity of UK imports and exports will each be 15% decrease than if we had remained within the EU.” That 15% loss in commerce “will result in a 4% discount within the potential productiveness of the UK financial system”. Now Farage and the Tories wish to double down on that catastrophe.Catherine Barnard, professor of European legislation at Cambridge College, warns of all the results: it could instantly finish the higher offers being negotiated, resembling simple animal and plant commerce, she tells me. Meals costs would rise, so would inflation, as commerce falls. The Good Friday settlement would crumble in a single day: the ECHR runs by way of it “as in a stick of rock”, as with each EU settlement. (Farage admits he must renegotiate the settlement: good luck.) Outrage in Eire on the fallout would make sure the EU took its revenge. Overlook knowledge change on crime or extradition of criminals.France can be among the many most indignant: any help in stopping small boats can be stopped. In actual fact, as Barnard writes, leaving the ECHR would do nothing in any respect to assist deportations of migrants. The 1951 refugee conference is the one which bans “refoulement”, sending asylum seekers again to harmful international locations. However leaving that will, says Prof Barnard, have all the identical political and commerce penalties with the EU as leaving the ECHR.Pariah Britain even additional out within the chilly, divorced from its democratic allies and falling additional behind them economically: that’s the thrilling supply from Farage and the Tories, and it received’t even “cease the boats”.However “nothing might be carried out” isn’t any reply, when individuals in each nation really feel their borders needs to be safe, delineating who belongs, who pays tax and who shares the general public advantages. Rising numbers of small boat arrivals, which makes up solely a tiny proportion of complete immigration, undermine the case for welcoming all of the individuals we have to encourage right here to construct 1.5m properties, maintain the NHS and social care on its ft, fund our universities, spur on our life-sciences and way more.Proper throughout Europe, governments face the identical dilemmas, the anti-immigrant proper driving the wave. However there are strikes to reform each the ECHR and the refugee conference, with 9 EU leaders writing a letter calling for “reinterpretation”. The 2 main signatories are the rightwing Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, and Denmark’s Social Democrat prime minister, Mette Frederiksen. They name for making it simpler to deport international criminals, which Barnard sees as a big step in the direction of change.A Europe-wide collaboration on rethinking asylum seems to be doable. Few suppose a 1951 conference designed for escaping political refugees was meant to cowl everybody globally from any war-torn or poverty-stricken dictatorship in an period of simple journey. Nor does it make ethical sense to rescue solely these with the cash to get to Europe.skip previous e-newsletter promotionSign as much as Issues of OpinionGuardian columnists and writers on what they’ve been debating, serious about, studying, and morePrivacy Discover: Newsletters might comprise details about charities, on-line adverts, and content material funded by outdoors events. Should you wouldn’t have an account, we’ll create a visitor account for you on theguardian.com to ship you this text. You possibly can full full registration at any time. For extra details about how we use your knowledge see our Privateness Coverage. We use Google reCaptcha to guard our web site and the Google Privateness Coverage and Phrases of Service apply.after e-newsletter promotionReprising Brexit, Farage and the Tories wish to go it alone. It’s unattainable to think about them working collaboratively with the EU on something, not to mention a posh rethinking of those conventions, as they protest that any Labour deal is sneaking us into the EU by the again door.At prime minister’s questions, the Liberal Democrat chief, Ed Davey, requested: “Will the prime minister categorically rule out withdrawing from the ECHR or suspending it or watering down our rights in any means?” The PM replied: “We won’t withdraw from the ECHR,” however added, “we do want to ensure each the legislation and different devices match the circumstances we face”. Sure certainly. However that may solely be carried out by settlement. Labour must get on the entrance foot towards Farage and the Tories. No higher means than hammering house the harm their Brexit did, and the way quitting the ECHR would carry us new sorts of hell.