Commerce Media Surpasses TV Globally and Traditional Search Holds AI at Bay—For Now

Commerce media will surpass TV advert spend globally for the primary time subsequent yr as digital climbs to 84% of the worldwide promoting market, in line with WPP Media’s newest promoting forecast, launched late Sunday.In its This Yr Subsequent Yr 2025 Finish-of-Yr Forecast, WPP Media estimates that commerce media will attain $178.2 billion in world advert income in 2025, overtaking TV promoting globally at $171.1 billion. Streaming’s share of TV income will rise from 26.2% to 29.5% over the identical interval.Based on Kate Scott-Dawkins, world president of enterprise intelligence at WPP Media and writer of the report, commerce media, which is each performance-driven and measurable, is changing into “very, very engaging” to manufacturers. On the identical time, regardless of the emergence of AI search, conventional search budgets stay resilient globally and within the U.S. WPP expects search spend—captured inside its “intelligence” class—to achieve $244.9 billion in 2025, up 10.2% yr over yr, with related progress projected for 2026.Scott-Dawkins mentioned conventional search ought to keep mid-to-high single-digit progress by way of the last decade, although the combo will regularly shift as AI-driven fashions account for a bigger share of the class.One other forecast on U.S. advert spend from analyst agency Madison & Wall., launched Sunday, additionally discovered search budgets stay “largely insulated from AI-related disruption,” including that AI has not meaningfully dented search revenues for legacy platforms.WPP Media plans to start reporting AI search income in its “intelligence” bucket beginning in 2026, reflecting early advert choices from platforms like OpenAI, in addition to AI fashions inside present search merchandise. However for now, each forecasts recommend AI is reshaping how folks uncover merchandise extra rapidly than it’s reshaping the place entrepreneurs spend their search budgets.Forecast upgradesBoth corporations raised their forecasts for advert spend progress in 2026, as a stronger-than-expected advert market shapes up globally and in the united statesWPP Media expects world promoting income to develop 8.8% in 2025, an improve from its June outlook of 6% progress. International advert spend will then gradual to 7.1% in 2026, however surpass $1.2 trillion. Scott-Dawkins attributed the optimistic outlook for 2025 to resilient client spending within the face of tariffs and the expansion of the AI sector. “A few of the largest corporations on the planet promote promoting,” she mentioned. “It is very important the economic system. It is very important funding this AI revolution.”Madison & Wall, for its half, forecasts 11% U.S. advert spend progress in 2025, excluding political spending—an improve from an earlier 3.6% progress projection—after advert spend elevated 13% year-over-year in Q3, its quickest tempo since early 2022.For 2026, Madison & Wall tasks U.S. advert progress will probably be between 6.6% and eight.6%, excluding political, relying on financial components. Development will probably be strongest within the first half of the yr—boosted by the Winter Olympics—earlier than steadily decelerating all through. The agency additionally fashions an alternate outcomes by which 2026 progress might fall to 1.9% if the U.S. enters a recession.Making ready for the AI period Scott-Dawkins mentioned the business is “at this cusp of the AI period,” noting that platforms that have been “utilizing machine studying a decade in the past” at the moment are investing in AI infrastructure and instruments that immediately help advert merchandise. For advertisers, she mentioned, AI is already creating efficiencies in workflows, provide chains, and product improvement, which might liberate incremental finances for media.Madison & Wall’s U.S. information additionally factors to a consolidation round AI-enabled media shopping for platforms, equivalent to Meta’s Benefit+ and Google’s Efficiency Max, which bundle inventive, optimization, and measurement in what the report describes as a “black field.” To assist shoppers navigate this new world, WPP Media has launched a Way forward for Promoting Intelligence Framework, which scores corporations throughout 5 areas: information property, AI and technical capabilities, distribution, transaction capabilities, and content material and media. The complete scoring and rubric, which incorporates present platforms and anticipated entrants like OpenAI, will probably be launched at CES in January 2026.