Introduction: Japan’s economic system contracts as exports are hit by US tariffsGood morning, and welcome to our rolling protection of enterprise, the monetary markets and the world economic system.Donald Trump’s commerce wars proceed to bruise the worldwide economic system, dampening demand and weakening commerce hyperlinks.Japan is the newest nation to point out the results – its economic system has shrunk for the primary time in six quarters.Japanese GDP fell by 0.4% within the July-September quarter, new official knowledge exhibits, as its producers’ exports had been hit by the tariffs imposed by the US this 12 months.Exports had been a key driver of the contraction; they fell by 1.2% in contrast with the April-June quarter, and had been 4.5% decrease than a 12 months in the past.Again in April, Trump threatened Japan with a brand new 25% tariff on its items on the US border, which was reduce to fifteen% in July when the 2 international locations reached a commerce deal.Personal demand additionally fell, by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter.On an annualised foundation, Japan’s actual gross home product shrank by 1.8% on an annualized foundation within the three months by September. Though that’s higher than the two.4% fall which economists had anticipated, it may bolster new prime minister Sanae Takaichi’s case to compile an bold stimulus programme.Yoshimasa Maruyama, chief market economist at SMBC Nikko Securities says (by way of Bloomberg):
“Japan’s economic system was stable within the first half of this 12 months and at the moment’s GDP confirmed that momentum is halted briefly.
I count on Japan’s economic system to be again on a reasonable restoration pattern going ahead.”
The White Home has belatedly woken as much as the impression of tariffs on People (who pay the levies) too – late final week, Trump lowered the tariffs on meals imports, together with beef, tomatoes, espresso and bananas, amid rising issues about rising prices.The agenda
8am GMT: Swiss GDP report for Q3
10am GMT: European Fee releases Autumn 2025 Financial Forecast
3pm GMT: US building spending knowledge for August
ShareUpdated at 03.43 ESTKey eventsShow key occasions onlyPlease activate JavaScript to make use of this featureAmazon founder Jeff Bezos is making a transfer into the AI world.Bezos is to function co-chief govt officer of a brand new synthetic intelligence startup that focuses on AI for engineering and manufacturing of computer systems, vehicles and spacecraft, the New York Instances is reporting.The corporate, referred to as Challenge Prometheus, has garnered $6.2bn (£4.7bn) in funding, partly from the Amazon founder, making it one of the crucial well-financed early-stage startups on this planet, the report stated, citing three individuals aware of the corporate.That is the primary time Bezos has taken a proper operational position in an organization since he stepped down because the CEO of Amazon in July 2021, Reuters factors out. Although he’s concerned in Blue Origin, his official title on the area agency is founder.ShareShares in Google’s mum or dad firm are set to rally in a number of hours time in New York, after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway group revealed it has purchased a stake within the tech large.Alphabet’s shares are up 4.9% in pre-market buying and selling, after a submitting on Friday confirmed that Berkshire owned 17.85 million shares in Google’s mum or dad on the finish of September.This could possibly be certainly one of Berkshire’s final buying and selling strikes below Buffett, who is because of step down as CEO of the corporate on the finish of this 12 months.ShareDespite the challenges going through WPP, its chairman may quickly be including a brand new job to his obligations.Sky Information experiences that Philip Jansen will likely be named as the following chairman of Heathrow Airport later this month. They are saying Jansen obtained the nod partly due to his expertise operating BT, which like Heathrow is a regulated utility.Heathrow is at present urgent on with its plans for a privately financed third runway and related airport enhancements, at an estimated price of virtually £50bn. A choice on the third runway is count on by the top of this parliament.Jansen turned chair of WPP initially of this 12 months, and final week gave it a vote of confidence by shopping for 50,000 shares within the firm.ShareUpdated at 06.02 ESTAlthough WPP’s shares have slipped again a bit of (+3.7%), they’re nonetheless main the FTSE 100 risers.AJ Bell funding director Russ Mould sums up the scenario:
“Executives at embattled promoting company WPP have not too long ago been snapping up shares within the firm and it appears they might not be the one ones who see worth within the enterprise. There’s hypothesis a couple of bid from French rival Havas and personal fairness corporations reportedly trying to choose off bits of the enterprise.
“After years when it felt like WPP’s shares had been struggling a sluggish puncture, the tyre has burst in inventory market phrases for the corporate in 2025. This led to the departure of CEO Mark Learn and traders within the US apparently being rallied by regulation corporations for a category motion lawsuit alleging they had been misled in regards to the state of the enterprise.
“WPP has numerous transferring elements which could possibly be an impediment to any takeover deal for the group as a complete however, with the shares buying and selling at low ranges final seen greater than 1 / 4 of a century in the past, it’s weak to being picked aside.”
ShareEC lifts 2025 eurozone progress forecast after pre-tariff export boomThe European Fee has raised its forecast for progress within the eurozone economic system this 12 months.In its newest forecasts, the EC says financial progress has exceeded expectations within the first 9 months of the 12 months, with actual GDP progress outperforming its spring forecasts.This faster-than-expected growth is partly because of the surge of exports to the US earlier this 12 months, as firms stocked up forward of Donald Trump’s tariffs.The Fee now expects the eurozone will develop by 1.3% in 2025, up from the 0.9% forecast in its spring forecasts. Progress is then anticipated to sluggish to 1.2% in 2026, down from 1.4% forecast six months in the past, after which rise to 1.4% in 2027.The EC says:
This better-than-expected efficiency was initially attributable to a surge in exports forward of anticipated tariff will increase, however funding in gear and intangible property additionally carried out extra strongly than anticipated — most notably in Eire, but additionally in different international locations.
Continued progress within the third quarter is testimony to the resilience of the European economic system and its skill to navigate unprecedented shocks.
Progress forecast for 2026 (%):🇲🇹3.8🇵🇱3.5🇱🇹3.0🇭🇷2.9🇧🇬2.7🇨🇾2.6🇸🇪2.6🇸🇮2.4🇭🇺2.3🇪🇸2.3🇬🇷2.2🇵🇹2.2🇩🇰2.1🇪🇪2.1🇨🇿1.9🇱🇺1.9🇱🇻1.7🇪🇺1.4🇳🇱1.3🇩🇪1.2🇧🇪1.1🇷🇴1.1🇸🇰1.0🇦🇹0.9🇫🇮0.9🇫🇷0.9🇮🇹0.8🇮🇪0.2Autumn #ECForecast → https://t.co/BHrNVrGGs6— European Fee (@EU_Commission) November 17, 2025
ShareA man convicted over a 2020 Twitter hack that compromised accounts of high-profile figures together with former U.S. President Barack Obama has been ordered to repay £4.1m price of Bitcoin, Reuters experiences.The hack, additionally concerned the accounts of Joe Biden, Elon Musk, Invoice Gates, Jeff Bezos and Apple.Compromised accounts despatched a collection of tweets proposing a basic bitcoin rip-off: followers had been informed that in the event that they transferred cryptocurrency to a selected bitcoin pockets, they’d obtain double the cash in return….ShareThe FTSE 100 share index has dipped this morning, transferring additional away from final week’s report highs.The UK’s blue-chip share index is down 11 factors, or 0.12%, at 9687 factors. Luxurious vogue group Burberry (-4.6%) are the highest faller, because the dipomatic spat between Beijing and Tokyo threatens to hit spending by Chinese language tourisms in Japan.Richard Hunter, head of markets at interactive investor, says:
Burberry and to a lesser extent HSBC had been below stress given the strain in Asia, whereas the beleaguered WPP rose on some obscure bid hypothesis arising from weekend experiences.
ShareGoldman Sachs: Purchase UK authorities debt as unemployment risesUK authorities bonds are steady this morning, after a selloff final Friday when information broke that chancellor Rachel Reeves had scrapped controversial plans to boost earnings tax.Information of the chancellor’s tax u-turn drove up the price of borrowing, as traders nervous that this month’s funds may create much less fiscal headroom than the markets hoped.Goldman Sachs are recommending shopping for UK authorities debt, predicting that bond costs will rise (pushing down rates of interest, or yields).They level out that will increase within the unemployment price sometimes result in decrease yields (increased bond costs) over time, telling shoppers:
The latest deterioration within the labour market factors to additional draw back threat to UK yields, as labour market softness ought to translate right into a stronger basis for decrease inflation in 2026, alongside ongoing disinflationary progress, and an upcoming contractionary funds.
As Goldman Sachs factors out, traditionally, will increase within the unemployment price increase the danger of recession. The “Sahm rule”, an indicator developed by US economist Claudia Sahm, indicators a recession if the rise within the unemployment price over a 12-month interval reaches a selected threshold.They are saying:
As exterior MPC member Megan Greene has identified, the UK’s “Sahm Rule” threshold is round 0.75 – that means an increase within the 3-month common unemployment price from the lows of the trailing 12 months to above this degree has been an indicator of recessions since 1975. The most recent unemployment price within the UK was 4.97%, and the rise within the “Sahm” indicator over the lows of the final 12m has been 0.71.
If the unemployment price rises above 5.2% within the subsequent three months, the recession threshold will likely be triggered.
A chart displaying UK unemployment charges and the Sahm Rule Illustration: Goldman SachsShareUpdated at 04.18 ESTWPP shares soar on takeover speculationA flurry of takeover hypothesis has pushed shares in promoting group WPP increased initially of buying and selling in London.WPP’s shares are up 4.7%, main the risers on the FTSE 100 share index, following experiences that a number of potential suitors have thought-about a bid.UPDATED: Based on the Sunday Instances, French rival Havas has held inside talks a couple of potential deal involving WPP, whereas personal fairness corporations Apollo and KKR have seemed right into a potential bid.This curiosity comes after WPP’s share value fell to its lowest degree since 1998 earlier this month, after it slashed its income steerage for the 12 months and its new chief govt Cindy Rose stated its latest efficiency has been “unacceptable”.The Sunday Instances reported:
It’s not clear whether or not any formal bids for WPP will materialise. Bidders may search to purchase the corporate in its entirety, take giant stakes within the enterprise or try to select off elements of the holding group.
It’s understood there have been talks at a excessive degree inside Havas, which is led by [billionaire Vincent] Bolloré’s son Yannick, in regards to the potential for a deal involving WPP.
WPP’s shares have fallen by virtually two-thirds up to now this 12 months, as the corporate has been hit by fears that synthetic intelligence instruments will eat its revenues.This has left the corporate weak to being relegated from the FTSE 100 on the subsequent quarterly reshuffle….ShareUpdated at 05.49 ESTSwiss economic system shrank 0.5% in Q3Newsflash: Switzerland’s economic system shrank within the third quarter of the 12 months too!Switzerland, which has additionally been badly hit by the Trump commerce wars, has simply reported that its economic system shrank by 0.5% in July-September in contrast with the earlier three months. Illustration: Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Financial Affairs (SECO)The downturn is being blamed on weak point within the chemical and pharmaceutical sectors, which had been each damage by the brand new tariffs imposed by Donald Trump this 12 months.Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Financial Affairs says:
Pushed by a pointy decline in worth added within the chemical and pharmaceutical sector, business as a complete recorded detrimental progress. The providers sector grew at a below-average price.
Business as a complete declined whereas the providers sector grew at a below-average price, the federal government added.This may add to the aid in Zurich that they’ve reached a take care of Trump that cuts tariffs on Switzerland from 39% to fifteen% as a part of a brand new commerce pact.ShareG7 progress leaderboardJapan is the primary of the G7 international locations to report its economic system contracted within the final quarter.With the US but to report GDP knowledge for Q3 2025, right here’s the leaderboard:
France: + 0.5% quarterly progress
UK: +0.1%
Canada: +0.1% (provisional estimate)
Germany: 0%
Italy: 0%
Japan: -0.4%
ShareJapan’s tourism shares hunch as diplomatic rift with China deepensAs nicely as information that its economic system shrank within the final quarter, Japan has additionally been hit by an escalating dispute with China over Taiwan.Shares in Japanese tourism and retail firms have fallen at the moment, after China suggested its residents to keep away from travelling to Japan.This transfer by Beijing escalated a diplomatic feud sparked by feedback from Tokyo’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, on the potential of deploying forces within the occasion of a hypothetical Chinese language assault on Taiwan.This triggered a wave of promoting throughout Japanese leisure shares.Shares in Oriental Land, which operates Tokyo Disneyland, have fallen by 5.7% at the moment. Division retailer chain Isetan Mitsukoshi, which makes substantial gross sales to Chinese language guests, has tumbled by 11.3%.Journey shares had been hit too, with Japan Airways falling 3.75%.Masahiko Bathroom, a senior mounted earnings strategist at State Road Funding Administration in Tokyo, explains:
“The China–Japan dispute over Taiwan and Beijing’s advisory discouraging journey to Japan introduces near-term headwinds for consumer-facing sectors.
“Chinese language guests account for roughly 25% of Japan’s inbound visitors, making shops, luxurious retail, and hospitality notably weak.”
ShareUpdated at 03.42 ESTIntroduction: Japan’s economic system contracts as exports are hit by US tariffsGood morning, and welcome to our rolling protection of enterprise, the monetary markets and the world economic system.Donald Trump’s commerce wars proceed to bruise the worldwide economic system, dampening demand and weakening commerce hyperlinks.Japan is the newest nation to point out the results – its economic system has shrunk for the primary time in six quarters.Japanese GDP fell by 0.4% within the July-September quarter, new official knowledge exhibits, as its producers’ exports had been hit by the tariffs imposed by the US this 12 months.Exports had been a key driver of the contraction; they fell by 1.2% in contrast with the April-June quarter, and had been 4.5% decrease than a 12 months in the past.Again in April, Trump threatened Japan with a brand new 25% tariff on its items on the US border, which was reduce to fifteen% in July when the 2 international locations reached a commerce deal.Personal demand additionally fell, by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter.On an annualised foundation, Japan’s actual gross home product shrank by 1.8% on an annualized foundation within the three months by September. Though that’s higher than the two.4% fall which economists had anticipated, it may bolster new prime minister Sanae Takaichi’s case to compile an bold stimulus programme.Yoshimasa Maruyama, chief market economist at SMBC Nikko Securities says (by way of Bloomberg):
“Japan’s economic system was stable within the first half of this 12 months and at the moment’s GDP confirmed that momentum is halted briefly.
I count on Japan’s economic system to be again on a reasonable restoration pattern going ahead.”
The White Home has belatedly woken as much as the impression of tariffs on People (who pay the levies) too – late final week, Trump lowered the tariffs on meals imports, together with beef, tomatoes, espresso and bananas, amid rising issues about rising prices.The agenda
8am GMT: Swiss GDP report for Q3
10am GMT: European Fee releases Autumn 2025 Financial Forecast
3pm GMT: US building spending knowledge for August
ShareUpdated at 03.43 EST
