Should Europe wean itself off US tech?

Daniel ThomasBusiness reporter, BBC NewsGetty ImagesThe large American tech firms dominate the worldwide cloud-computing sectorImagine if US President Donald Trump might flip a change and switch off Europe’s web.It could sound far-fetched, loopy even. However it’s a state of affairs that has been significantly mentioned in tech trade and coverage circles in latest months, as tensions with Washington have escalated, and issues in regards to the EU’s reliance on American know-how have come to the fore.On the root of those issues is the actual fact simply three US giants – Google, Microsoft and Amazon – present 70% of Europe’s cloud-computing infrastructure, the scaffolding on which many on-line companies rely.And a few query whether or not an unpredictable US chief would weaponize the scenario if relations significantly deteriorated – for instance, by ordering these firms to show off their companies in Europe.”Important information would grow to be inaccessible, web sites would go darkish, and important state companies like hospital IT methods could be thrown into chaos,” says Robin Berjon, a digital governance specialist who advises EU policymakers.He believes that issues over a so known as US “kill change” needs to be taken significantly. “It is onerous to say how a lot bother we might be in.”Microsoft, Google and Amazon all say they provide “sovereign” cloud computing options that safeguard EU purchasers’ information, and would stop such a state of affairs ever occurring. The BBC has contacted the US Treasury division for remark.In fact, there have all the time been issues in regards to the lack of “digital sovereignty” in Europe, the place US companies not solely dominate the cloud-computing market, but in addition {hardware}, satellite tv for pc web and now synthetic intelligence.Even the area’s principal cellular working methods – Apple and Android – and cost networks – Mastercard and Visa – are American.These fears grew to become pressing in Could when it emerged that Karim Khan, the highest prosecutor on the Netherlands-based Worldwide Felony Court docket (ICC), had misplaced entry to his Microsoft Outlook e-mail account after being sanctioned by the White Home.The ICC has issued arrest warrants for high Israeli officers, together with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, over their roles within the Israel-Gaza warfare – one thing Mr Trump known as “illegitimate”.Khan has since briefly stepped apart till a sexual misconduct probe towards him is concluded.Microsoft says that “at no level” did it stop or droop its companies to the ICC, though it was in contact with the ICC “all through the method that resulted within the disconnection”.Robin BerjonRobin Berjon, a digital governance specialist, says Europe ought to take the chance of a US “kill change” seriouslySince then digital sovereignty has shot up the agenda in Brussels, whereas some public our bodies are already searching for options to US suppliers.However is it real looking to suppose they might wean themselves off US know-how?Digital sovereignty is loosely outlined as the flexibility of a governing physique to manage the info and know-how methods inside its borders.One downside confronted by these pursuing it’s the lack of comparable options.Europe does have its personal suppliers, comparable to France’s OVHCloud, or Germany’s Germany’s T-Methods or Delos, in cloud computing.However they account for a fraction of the market, and do not have the identical scale or vary of capabilities, says Dario Maisto, a senior analyst protecting digital sovereignty at world enterprise consultancy Forrester.Equally, open-source options can be found for frequent software program packages like Workplace and Home windows, however whereas proponents say they’re extra clear and accessible, none is as complete or well-known.However whereas transferring to sovereign options would not “occur in a single day”, it is a “fantasy” to suppose it isn’t doable, says Mr Maisto.He notes that the German state of Schleswig-Holstein is at the moment within the strategy of phasing out Microsoft merchandise like Workplace 365 and Home windows in favour of open-source options comparable to LibreOffice and Linux. Denmark’s Ministry for Digitalisation is piloting the same scheme.”We typically overvalue the position of proprietary software program in our organisations,” Mr Maisto says, stating that for key companies like phrase processing and e-mail, open-source options work simply nice.”The primary causes organisations do not use open supply are a lack of knowledge and misplaced fears about cyber safety,” he provides.”Our prediction is within the subsequent 5 to 10 years, there will likely be an accelerated shift [to these solutions] due to this wake-up name.”Getty ImagesICC prosecutor Karim Khan misplaced entry to his Microsoft Outlook e-mail accountBenjamin Revcolevschi, boss of OVHCloud, tells the BBC that companies like his are able to reply the sovereignty wants of private and non-private organisations in Europe.”Solely European cloud suppliers, whose headquarters are within the EU and with European governance, are capable of provide immunity to non-European legal guidelines, to guard delicate and private information,” he says.However Microsoft, Amazon and Google say they already provide options that tackle issues about digital sovereignty, options which retailer information on severs within the purchasers’ nation or area, not within the US.Google tells the BBC that it additionally companions with trusted native EU suppliers like T-Methods, granting them management over the encryption of shopper information, and giving clients “a technical veto over their information”. The German Military is one in all its purchasers.In the meantime, Microsoft president Brad Smith has promised the agency would take authorized motion within the “exceedingly unlikely” occasion the US authorities ordered it to droop companies, and that it could embody a clause in European contracts to that impact.”We are going to proceed to search for new methods to make sure the European Fee and our European clients have the choices and assurances they should function with confidence,” a Microsoft spokesman instructed the BBC.Zach Meyers, from the Brussels-based Centre on Regulation in Europe (CERRE) suppose tank, says it’d make sense for Europe to develop its personal restricted sovereign cloud to guard essential authorities information.However he provides that it is unrealistic to attempt to “get People out of the provision chain, or to make sure that there’s Europeans within the provide chain at every level”.He factors to Gaia X – a scheme launched in 2020 to create a European-based different to massive, centralised cloud platforms, which has confronted vital criticism and delays.”Numerous these [tech] markets are winner takes all, so when you’re the primary mover it is actually onerous for anybody else to catch up.”As a substitute, Mr Meyers thinks Europe ought to deal with areas of know-how the place it’d achieve an edge.”It may very well be the commercial use of AI, as a result of Europe already has a a lot larger, stronger industrial base than the US has,” he says. “Or the following era of chipmaking tools, as a result of one of many few areas the place Europe has foothold is in photolithography – the machines that make the actually top-end chips.”Getty ImagesSome say that the EU must shortly construct up its tech independenceSo the place does the digital sovereignty agenda go from right here?Some consider nothing will change until Europe brings in new laws that pressure regional organisations and governments to purchase native know-how. However based on Mr Berjon, the EU has been dragging its ft.”There may be undoubtedly political curiosity, but it surely’s a query of turning it right into a shared technique.”Matthias Bauer, director on the European Centre for Worldwide Political Economic system, thinks the objective needs to be build up Europe’s know-how sector so it may well compete with the US and China.In a report on EU competitiveness in 2024, Mario Draghi, former head of the European Central Financial institution, famous Europe is “severely lagging behind” in new applied sciences, and that “solely 4 of the world’s high 50 tech firms are European”.”It is at the moment a lot more durable for a tech firm based mostly within the EU to scale throughout the bloc than it could be for a similar firm within the US,” Mr Bauer says.”You not solely face totally different languages, however totally different contract regulation, labour market legal guidelines, tax legal guidelines, and in addition totally different sector-specific regulation.”As for the idea that President Trump would possibly flip a “kill change” and switch off Europe’s web, he is extremely sceptical.”It could be a practical state of affairs if we had been near a warfare, however I do not see that on the horizon.”But Mr Maisto says organisations should take the chance significantly, nevertheless distant.”Two years in the past, we did not suppose we might be speaking about these subjects in these phrases in 2025. Now organisations need to prepare for what would possibly occur.”Learn extra world enterprise tales