Trump’s $100,000 H-1B visa fee could hurt US growth, economists warn | US economy

Donald Trump’s determination to impose a $100,000 (£74,096) price on H1-B visas for expert international employees may damage US financial progress, economists have warned.Trump signed a proclamation on Friday introducing the appliance price for the H-1B visa, 60 instances the present value, in a transfer designed to encourage firms to rent extra American employees.The rise represents a blow to huge tech firms, which rely closely on such visas to rent engineers, scientists and coders from abroad, significantly India.Atakan Bakiskan, an economist on the funding financial institution Berenberg, mentioned the transfer was an instance of the Trump administration’s “anti-growth policymaking”.“By making it very costly for firms to draw international expertise, and by forcing some worldwide college students to depart the nation after commencement, the mind drain will weigh closely on productiveness,” he added.“Investments in synthetic intelligence are unlikely to offset the harm brought on by the lack of human capital beneath restrictive immigration insurance policies.”Berenberg not too long ago lowered its estimate for US financial progress, from 2% at the beginning of the 12 months to 1.5%. Nonetheless, Bakiskan warned that, until Trump relents, the 1.5% forecast “might quickly look optimistic”.He mentioned: “Taken collectively, the erosion of belief in establishments, a lack of human capital, tariffs, persistent uncertainty, and unsustainable fiscal insurance policies can elevate the tail threat of a monetary disaster within the US. In the long term, they could set a path for an excellent weaker greenback and better long-term yields.”A Deutsche Financial institution market strategist, Jim Reid, mentioned the brand new utility price “triggered an enormous quantity of uncertainty over the weekend for those who depend on it”.Trump’s announcement on Friday triggered chaos within the tech trade, with some companies in Silicon Valley urging workers to not journey outdoors the nation. It prompted the White Home to make clear on Saturday that the brand new greater price utilized solely to new candidates and can be a one-off cost.Kathleen Brooks, the analysis director on the dealer XTB, mentioned Amazon had the very best variety of employees on H-1B visas, intently adopted by Microsoft, the Fb proprietor Meta, Apple and Google.“Though these firms have the cash to afford the visas, different sectors who additionally depend on H-1B visas might battle with future recruitment, for instance the well being care and training sectors,” she mentioned.skip previous e-newsletter promotionSign as much as Enterprise TodayGet set for the working day – we’ll level you to all of the enterprise information and evaluation you want each morningPrivacy Discover: Newsletters might include details about charities, on-line advertisements, and content material funded by outdoors events. If you happen to do not need an account, we are going to create a visitor account for you on theguardian.com to ship you this article. You possibly can full full registration at any time. For extra details about how we use your knowledge see our Privateness Coverage. We use Google reCaptcha to guard our web site and the Google Privateness Coverage and Phrases of Service apply.after e-newsletter promotionIn the primary half of 2025, Amazon had greater than 10,000 H-1B visas authorised, whereas Microsoft and Meta Platforms had greater than 5,000 approvals every.The H-1B programme affords 65,000 visas yearly to employers bringing in non permanent international employees in specialised fields, with an extra 20,000 visas for employees with superior levels.India has been the most important beneficiary of H-1B visas, accounting for 71% of authorised visas final 12 months. The Indian authorities hit again on the new price for expert employees, warning it could have “humanitarian penalties” by the use of “disruption triggered for households”.On Sunday, India’s commerce minister, Piyush Goyal, mentioned: “They’re additionally somewhat afraid of our expertise. We’ve got no objection to that.”On Monday, the share costs of the multibillion-dollar Indian tech teams Infosys and Tata Consulting Companies fell by about 3% in response to the information. Each firms use the H1-B programme to deploy 1000’s of Indian employees to US shoppers.