HUNT, TEXAS – JULY 6: Autos sit submerged as a search and rescue employee seems to be by particles for … Extra any survivors or stays of individuals swept up within the flash flooding on July 6, 2025 in Hunt, Texas. Heavy rainfall brought on flooding alongside the Guadalupe River in central Texas with a number of fatalities reported. (Picture by Jim Vondruska/Getty Photographs)Getty Photographs
Texas continues to be grappling with one of many worst flood disasters in U.S. historical past, and on the time of writing, one other spherical of utmost rainfall is affecting the Hill Nation. The dying toll is approaching 130, and almost 170 persons are nonetheless lacking. Traditionally, a climate catastrophe of this magnitude prompts dialogue, coverage modifications, and reflection. Satisfactory, well timed climate warnings had been issued within the days and hours main as much as the flood disaster, however folks nonetheless died. As former President of the American Meteorological Society and a scholar who research excessive rainfall, I proceed to ponder whether or not a class system, just like the Saffir-Simpson Scale (hurricanes) or Enhanced Fujita Scale (tornadoes), would have prompted earlier and totally different actions in Texas (and elsewhere).
Scales Have Flaws
To be clear, I’ve argued in recent times that the Saffir-Simpson Scale used for hurricane threat communication has its flaws. It was designed as a wind scale and conveys little or no direct details about inland flooding, storm surge, and twister hazards related to hurricanes. Research have proven that water (storm surge and rain) are the deadliest side of hurricanes. But, folks are likely to fixate on the class. A examine revealed by our analysis group on the College of Georgia discovered that probably the most prolific rain producers are tropical storms and weakening hurricanes. For instance, high-impact rains related to storms like Helene (2024) and Harvey (2017) had been throughout post-hurricane section. With hurricanes, I cringe when folks say, “It’s only a tropical storm or Class 1 hurricane.” That assertion undervalues the impression of rainfall, significantly if the storm slows down or stalls as we noticed, for instance, with Florence (2018) within the Carolinas.
LUMBERTON, NC – SEPTEMBER 20: Propane tanks are seen within the flood waters after heavy rains from … Extra Hurricane Florence inundated the realm on September 20, 2018 in Lumberton, North Carolina. Residents have begun cleansing up in North Carolina because the flooding has begun to subside. (Picture by Joe Raedle/Getty Photographs)Getty Photographs
Even With Flaws, Is There Alternative With Flood Threat Communication?
That’s a long-winded approach of claiming that planning for impacts is extra necessary than categorization. Nonetheless, there isn’t any doubt that hurricane classes get the eye of the media, public, and decisionmakers. Within the July 4th Texas Floods, the climate warnings had been there. As early as 4 days earlier than the occasion, NOAA recognized the area in its 3 to 7-day hazards outlook for heavy rainfall. Let’s pause proper there and take into account a hypothetical state of affairs. If a Class 5 hurricane was forecasted to make landfall in 3 to 4 days, what do you suppose can be taking place in threatened jurisdictions? My expertise tells me that evacuation planning, infrastructure preparations, and the media onslaught can be in full swing.
Day 3 to 7 Hazard Outlook issued on June thirtieth recognized heavy rainfall potential in Texas Hill … Extra Nation for July 3, 2025.NOAA
What if we had a class or index system that labeled the rainfall in conditions just like the Texas Hill Nation floods? Folks typically inform me they can not discern an excessive flood menace from extra frequent floods. They complain that about saturation of data. For those who dwell within the “flash flood alley” of Texas, it’s seemingly that flash flood watches and warnings are frequent. Let’s overview the climate warning timelines for the Texas flooding on July 4th:
Day 3 to 7 Hazard Outlook issued on June 30, 2025 recognized heavy rainfall potential in Texas Hill Nation for July 3, 2025.
Flash Flood Watch issued at 1:18 pm Thursday July 3.
Flash Flood Warning issued at 1:14 am Friday July 4. Emergency alert system pushes data out to telephones.
Flash Flood Emergency issued at 4:03 am Friday July 4. Emergency alert system pushes data out to telephones.
There’s all kinds of flood merchandise and warning messaging.NWS
In these warnings phrases like “life-threatening” and “flash flood emergency” had been conveyed. NWS did its job. Nonetheless, the huge space of communication instruments and texts could not all the time resonate with the broader public. One individual requested me why don’t they simply use phrases with extra direct, private urgency like “Get to excessive floor now or you’ll die!” Over time, I’ve seen messaging with hurricanes or tornadoes use such language. We’ve cute little slogans like “flip round, don’t drown” for conveying some facets of flood dangers, but I continuously see movies of stranded vehicles on flooded roadways. To be truthful, the NWS is conscious of such challenges and have applied a program to simplify hazard messaging.
KERRVILLE, TEXAS – JULY 04: Kerrville resident Leighton Sterling watches flood waters alongside the … Extra Guadalupe River on July 4, 2025 in Kerrville, Texas. Heavy rainfall brought on flooding alongside the Guadalupe River in central Texas with a number of fatalities reported. (Picture by Eric Vryn/Getty Photographs)Getty Photographs
With the July 4th Floods, there was time within the hours main as much as the fast rise of the river (~3:00 am) and report crest of the Guadalupe River (~5:10 am) for an array of responses. Nonetheless, let’s transfer the dialogue away from the hours main as much as the occasion. What concerning the days main as much as the occasion? There have been clearly alerts that prompted Nationwide Climate Service meteorologists to establish that area within the 3 to 7-day hazards outlook on June 30. Sufficient data was in place to warrant a Flash Flood Watch the day earlier than.
The Flash Flood Severity Index
What occurs if these alerts had been wrapped up in a “class” and communicated in that approach? Even with flaws, emergency managers and the general public are conditioned to know or react to excessive numbers on scales. The truth is, a 2024 examine by researchers on the College of South Florida discovered that not solely are folks cognizant of the Saffir-Simpson Scale, they’re conscious of its deficiencies at capturing the total spectrum of threat from rainfall, surge, and so forth. The examine beneficial audience-centered communication methods that may embody separate score techniques, accessible visuals, customized data supply, and tailor-made messaging for various ranges of threat notion.Meteorologist Hugh Johnson factors to the forecast cone of Hurricane Sandy on a pc map on the … Extra Nationwide Climate Service on Fuller Rd. on Thursday, Oct. 25, 2012 in Albany, N.Y. That is the expected path zone for the hurricane as of the time this picture was taken. (Picture by Lori Van Buren/Albany Instances Union through Getty Photographs)Albany Instances Union through Getty Ima
A 2018 examine revealed in Pure Hazards discovered that folks usually need details about how flooding may happen and when it should occur in order that they will perceive and course of their threat stage or resolution choices. A 2021 examine in China revealed that over half the respondents of their survey both underestimated flood dangers or had flawed perceptions about them. In Texas Hill Nation or different rain-prone areas, normalcy bias narratives that “we get a lot of rain all the time” can additional complicate misperceptions or actions. That very same examine discovered that suburban and rural residents reported nearer social communications with folks of their neighborhood, which formed conduct or attitudes in the direction of flood warnings.
May a flood index assist with such misperceptions? We’ve recognized for many years that flooding and warmth, for some folks, don’t illicit the identical stage of threat notion as tornadoes or hurricanes although they’re the 2 deadliest climate occasions every year within the U.S. Certainly one of my former doctoral college students, Amanda Schroeder, got here to me a number of years in the past on the College of Georgia with questions concerning the feasibility of flood scale. Dr. Schroeder and a collective of students went on to publish an preliminary examine of a Flash Flood Severity Index in 2016. Sure, one exists. The index has 5 impact-based classes (Class 1, very minor flooding to Class 5, catastrophic flooding). Simply two months in the past, Schroeder and a group of NWS colleagues outlined within the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society in depth discipline testing of FFSI since 2018.BEAR CREEK, USA – JULY 8: A view of destruction on a highway to Chatham Central Excessive College following … Extra the tropical storm Chantal in Bear Creek North Carolina, United States on July 8, 2025. After the storm weakens Nationwide Hurricane Heart to downgrade it to a tropical melancholy. (Picture by Peter Zay/Anadolu through Getty Photographs)Anadolu through Getty Photographs
The FFSI is a damage-based, post-event evaluation just like the Enhanced Fujita Scale score designated after tornadic occasions. Nonetheless, I believe there may be nonetheless worth within the index. The Texas Hill Nation flooding on July 4th was actually a Class 5. Because of the EF scale, folks have a eager sense of what harm from an EF-5 twister seems to be like. The FFSI may assist form flood literacy and construct psychological fashions of what flood threat ranges seem like, particularly if warnings stated issues like “potential Class 5 flooding” is feasible. The problem, like with any scale, can be discovering the fitting cadence and utilization for probably the most excessive classes. That’s the place analysis is available in.The deadliest climate in the usNWS
